Another weekend, another special weather statement in effect for southern Manitoba. 

A major low pressure system — the third in as many weeks — is expected to bring more precipitation to an already waterlogged province. 

“It would be decent if we hadn’t had two major Colorado lows in the last two weeks,” says Environment Canada meteorologist Chris Stammers. “Seeing this on top of the previous two is a pretty substantial event for sure.”

Though forecast models remain uncertain, confidence is increasing that areas of the Red River Valley and western Manitoba will receive an additional 20-50mm by the time system moves on after the weekend. 

“The highest likelihood for heavy rainfall right now looks like along the international border in the western Red River Valley,” says Stammers. “That area could see upwards of 50 mms of rainfall.” 

For the northern Red River Valley — including Winnipeg — Stammers expects a total rainfall in the 20-30 mm range though there could be some snowfall as temperatures drop according to Stammers. 

“As the low pulls off, there’ll likely be some wet snow falling on Sunday in parts of the province. For sure over the higher terrain they’ll likely see some snowfall but even in Winnipeg we could see a couple centimetres of wet snow.”

Much of southern Manitoba is already experiencing highly saturated ground and overland flooding. 

“Right now people just want a couple weeks of dry weather and having three pretty significant storm systems back-to-back-to-back like this is really unheard of.”

Unlike last weekend storm, which at times brought torrential downpour paired with thunder and lightening, Stammers expects there to be little in the way of thunderstorms which should help reduce the risk of rapid rainfall. 

“The good news is that after this system we are going to get into a warmer and drier pattern where temperatures are getting closer to where it's normal,” says Stammers. 

“Hopefully that will be something that sticks around."