The National Weather Service Grand Forks office has released its final Spring flood outlook for the northern Red River Valley.

According to the report issued Thursday, the snow-melt flood risk is moderately high, with all Red River main-stem points seeing near to somewhat above normal spring runoff and flows.

Based on current projections, there is a 90 to 95 per cent chance the Red will reach Moderate flood stage at Pembina, and a 75 per cent chance it will reach Major stage.

Lingering 2021 drought conditions have led to some surface storage for snowmelt infiltration, as long as the thaw is gentle.

The outlook notes, however, snowfall and snow water equivalent through early March is somewhat above long-term late-winter normal amounts.

Frost depths are running somewhat deeper than long-term averages, due to bitter cold Jan-Feb conditions.

Meanwhile, climate outlooks currently indicate a volatile next couple of weeks, cold-to mild-to-cold, with a trend toward near-normal temperatures and precipitation, mid-March through April, which would help keep the overall U.S. Red River flood risk in check.