The Manitoba Government is predicting major flooding this spring along the Red River. Sustainable Development Minister Ron Schuler issued the first flood forecast of the year Thursday morning. 

"We expect to see major flooding along the Red River with both the Red River Floodway and the Portage Diversion pressed into service. With normal future weather conditions, levels on the Red River, south of floodway, are expected to be near 2011 levels. Unfavourable weather conditions, including late-season snow, spring rains and more rapid snowmelt, would bring Red River levels comparable to the 2009 levels, which saw extended road closures of Highway #75 and other roads and evacuations in some areas."

Schuler says that community ring dikes are high enough to protect all communities along the Red River in either scenario.

The outlook also says that flows on the Assiniboine and Souris rivers are also expected to be high. However, peak water levels will be below flood protection levels. Flows may produce some flooding of farmland and low-lying areas. The Shellmouth Dam will be operated to store a portion of the spring run-off, thereby reducing downstream river flows.

Shuler adds that the weather during spring thaw will be the determining factor in the severity of the flood.

"If we had +3 or +4 starting today and for the next month, the ground is probably dry enough to take a lot of that moisture. If, however, we have sustained and continued very cold weather and then we get a very fast melt, it means that the water, rather than going into the ground or evaporating, then would start flowing very fast. And we do have thicker than normal ice, so then we would find that there would be ice-jamming which then creates other flooding challenges."

Schuler says the government will be communicating with affected municipalities and First Nations to make sure they have the things that they need such as sandbags and access to sand as needed. He adds they will plan for the worst and hope for the best.