The risk of an extensive flood on the Red River this spring remains low in the U.S. part of the basin.
In its latest flood update released Thursday morning, The U.S. National Weather Service says the risk of both major and moderate flooding is below 35 per cent, but there is a high risk of minor flooding at Fargo.
The snow-pack in the U.S. is well below normal across the Red River basin with a snow water equivalent of less than one inch.
Frost depths are deeper than normal, between 20 to 40 inches across much of the region, due to a shallow snow-pack which allowed frost to penetrate deeper into the ground this winter.
River ice thickness is about normal for this time of year.
Meanwhile, Climate outlooks currently indicate an increased risk for near-normal temperatures and precipitation as the region moves
from late winter into the early spring period, with the typical risk for late-season heavy snow or rainfall.
The forecast flood potential for the U.S. Red River basin is quite the turnaround from a record wettest year in 2019, and top ten flooding in 2020. But, a dry late summer and fall period in 2020 has depleted any residual soil moisture or stream-flow.
Written by Dean Penner